U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July and revisions erased 103,000 more from May and June, pushing September Fed hold odds to about 60 percent. Prime holds at 6.75 percent.

The Fed held $524.9 billion of Treasury bills on August 5, up $329.4 billion since balance sheet runoff ended, while reserve balances stalled near $3 trillion.

Treasury will auction $125 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities on August 11 to 13, holding coupon sizes flat as Q3 borrowing climbs to $739 billion.

U.S. public debt reached $39.84 trillion on July 30, 2026, just $158.9 billion below $40 trillion, as the average interest rate on the debt climbed to 3.41 percent.

U.S. labor costs rose 0.9% in the second quarter of 2026, above forecasts, keeping wage-driven inflation in play as the Fed holds and the prime rate stays at 6.75%.

June core PCE inflation eased to 3.3 percent, its first cooling in months, but a divided Fed that held rates on July 29 keeps the prime rate at 6.75 percent.

Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes on July 27 at a 4.408% high yield with a 2.28 bid-to-cover, the weakest of three note sales this week as the Fed meets.

The Fed opens its two-day July meeting Tuesday with a rate hike a live possibility. Futures put hike odds near 34% as oil above $100 revives inflation fears.

The U.S. prime rate is set to hold at 6.75 percent as markets price a fifth straight Fed hold on July 29, 2026. Here is what a pause means for your debt and savings.