The Fed publishes its July 28 to 29 minutes on Wednesday, August 19. The Committee held rates 9 to 3, three officials wanted a hike, and prime stayed at 6.75%.

The federal government ran a record $432.3 billion deficit in July 2026, pushing the fiscal 2026 shortfall past $1.799 trillion, more than all of fiscal 2025 combined.

Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.216 percent on August 13, the highest yield on long-dated federal debt since 2001, as bid-to-cover slipped to 2.39.

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and 3.4 percent over 12 months. Core inflation slowed to 2.5 percent, its softest annual reading of the past year.

Treasury sold $58 billion of three-year notes at a 4.291 percent high yield on August 11, the highest since February 2025, yet demand was the strongest in nine months.

Treasury data through July 31 shows the federal government paid $1.170 trillion to service the national debt in fiscal 2026, up 15 percent with two months left.

U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July and revisions erased 103,000 more from May and June, pushing September Fed hold odds to about 60 percent. Prime holds at 6.75 percent.

The Fed held $524.9 billion of Treasury bills on August 5, up $329.4 billion since balance sheet runoff ended, while reserve balances stalled near $3 trillion.