Prime Rate Hits 270 Days at 6.75% as Traders Price a September Fed Hike

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.

Treasury sells $119 billion of notes and bonds on September 8, 9 and 10 while the Fed observes its pre-meeting blackout. The three-year yields 4.45%.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August and the BLS revised June and July up by a combined 55,000, erasing the reported July decline days before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a September hold if August inflation keeps cooling, citing three-month core inflation of 3.05 percent, and a hike if it does not.

The Fed's September 2 Beige Book found prices increased moderately in eight of twelve Districts, with the pace unchanged in eight and slower in only three.

US federal debt closed August at $40.18 trillion, up $404.02 billion from July 31, the largest single-month rise of fiscal 2026 and the first month-end close above $40T.

Treasury's August 31 six-month bill cleared at 3.885 percent with primary dealers absorbing 40 percent of the sale, their largest share since December 2025.

The Federal Reserve Board disclosed that four Reserve Bank boards asked for a 4 percent discount rate on July 29, double the number that made the request nine days earlier.

Treasury sold $44 billion of seven-year notes at 4.512% on August 27, the highest stop for the maturity since December 2024, as indirect bidders pulled back.

The 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34% on August 28, up 14 basis points, after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh told Jackson Hole the central bank still has work to do on inflation.