Federal Debt Grew $421.8 Billion in October, the Most Since July 2025

Federal debt rose $421.8 billion in October 2026 to $40.593 trillion, the largest monthly increase since July 2025. Here is what it means for prime and mortgage rates.

Federal debt rose $421.8 billion in October 2026 to $40.593 trillion, the largest monthly increase since July 2025. Here is what it means for prime and mortgage rates.

Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% over the 12 months through September 2026, the BEA reported October 29, one day after the Fed held the prime rate at 7.00% on a 10 to 2 vote.

Bank reserves fell $68.8 billion to $2.894 trillion in the week ended October 28, the lowest since December 2025, as SOFR closed above the Fed's 3.90% floor for a fourth straight session.

The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026, keeping the prime rate at 7.00%. Cook and Hammack dissented for a quarter point hike.

Treasury's Debt to the Penny series recorded $40,528,358,939,415.85 on October 26, 2026, the first reading above $40.5 trillion, after a $65.21 billion one day rise.

Direct bidders took 41.32% of Treasury's $69 billion 2-year note auction on October 26, a four-year record for the maturity, as indirect bidders fell to 45.68%.

The Fed opens a two-day meeting Tuesday. 94 of 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, keeping the prime rate at 7.00% into December.

Treasury will auction $213 billion of 2-year, 5-year, 7-year and floating rate notes across the four days surrounding the Fed's October 28 decision, all settling November 2.

Treasury sold $26 billion of five-year TIPS on October 22 at a 2.367% high real yield, the highest for the maturity since October 2023, on a 2.41 bid-to-cover.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 basis points to 4.96% on October 22, its largest one-day drop since August 2024 and its first close below 5% in a month.