Fed Holds Rates as Dot Plot Flips to a 2026 Hike at Warsh’s First Meeting

The Fed held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on June 17, 2026, but its new dot plot flipped toward a 2026 hike at Kevin Warsh's first meeting. Prime stays 6.75 percent.

The Fed held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on June 17, 2026, but its new dot plot flipped toward a 2026 hike at Kevin Warsh's first meeting. Prime stays 6.75 percent.

Treasury sold $13 billion of 20-year bonds at a 4.927% high yield on June 16, drawing a 2.75 bid-to-cover and 71.2% indirect demand, the strongest 20-year sale since January.

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The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and the prime rate at 6.75% on June 17, with the new dot plot and a hot May inflation print the real story.

Treasury's $22 billion 30-year auction stopped at 5.02% on June 11, the first back-to-back 5% sales since 2007, days before the June 16-17 Fed meeting.

May CPI rose 0.5% for the month and 4.2% over the year, the first 4% reading since 2023. Core held at 2.9% as the Fed heads into its June 16-17 meeting.

The U.S. prime rate is 6.75%, but the Fed does not set it. Here is how banks derive prime from the federal funds rate and what it means for your loans.

The average rate on U.S. interest-bearing debt rose to 3.353% in May, the highest since October 2025, as low-coupon debt refinances into higher market yields.

U.S. employers added 172,000 jobs in May 2026 and unemployment held at 4.3 percent, reinforcing a June Federal Reserve hold and keeping the prime rate at 6.75 percent.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.5% as an oil spike pushed markets to price an 85% chance of a 2026 Fed rate hike, even as the prime rate held at 6.75%.