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The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.5% as an oil spike pushed markets to price an 85% chance of a 2026 Fed rate hike, even as the prime rate held at 6.75%.
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, ADP reported June 3, a broad-based gain that reinforces the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates at its June 16-17 meeting and keep prime at 6.75%.
Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman defended keeping rate cuts on the table in a May 29 speech, urging the Committee to look past oil-driven inflation before the June 16-17 FOMC.
U.S. GDP grew just 1.6% in Q1 2026, revised down from 2.0%, as corporate profit growth stalled and inflation stayed hot, keeping the Fed on hold and prime at 6.75%.
U.S. public debt crossed $39 trillion in May 2026. With new Treasury issues yielding above 4.4% and the average rate at 3.34%, CBO projects net interest above $1 trillion this year.
April PCE inflation rose to 3.8% year over year as core held at 3.3%, cementing a June Fed hold and keeping the prime rate at 6.75%. Here is what it means for your money.
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