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June core PCE inflation eased to 3.3 percent, its first cooling in months, but a divided Fed that held rates on July 29 keeps the prime rate at 6.75 percent.
Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes on July 27 at a 4.408% high yield with a 2.28 bid-to-cover, the weakest of three note sales this week as the Fed meets.
Interest rate swaps now imply about a 40% chance the Fed hikes on July 29 after Citadel Securities forecast a surprise increase. Here is what a hike or hold means.
The Fed opens its two-day July meeting Tuesday with a rate hike a live possibility. Futures put hike odds near 34% as oil above $100 revives inflation fears.
The U.S. prime rate is set to hold at 6.75 percent as markets price a fifth straight Fed hold on July 29, 2026. Here is what a pause means for your debt and savings.
Brent crude topped $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest since January 2025, lifting September Fed rate-hike odds to about 82% as prime holds at 6.75%.
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