Bowman Puts October Core PCE at 3.3% and Says Inflation Progress Has Stalled

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.3% in October and that progress on lowering inflation has stalled.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.3% in October and that progress on lowering inflation has stalled.

Treasury sold $42 billion of 10-year notes on November 10 at a 5.020% high yield with a 5.000% coupon. Bid-to-cover slipped to 2.46 and dealers took 9.8%.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a 25 basis point hike on December 9 and that 50 basis points should be considered if October core CPI runs near 0.3 percent. Prime sits at 7.00 percent.

The Fed's G.19 release shows revolving credit grew at a 14.5 percent annual rate in September to $1,368.5 billion, with prime steady at 7.00 percent before the December vote.

Treasury's borrowing committee minutes show the median primary dealer projecting a $2.14 trillion funding shortfall for fiscal 2028 and 2029 at current auction sizes.

U.S. payrolls rose 165,000 in October and unemployment fell to 4.1 percent, lifting December Fed rate hike odds to roughly 77 percent before the December 9 decision.

The average rate on U.S. interest-bearing federal debt reached 3.580% on October 31, the highest since April 2009, as Treasury bills topped 4% for the first time in a year.

Treasury set its November quarterly refunding at $125 billion and dropped the phrase at least from its coupon auction size guidance, pointing any change at February 3.

Treasury's operating cash balance closed at $930.8 billion on November 2, down $121.8 billion from its October 27 peak, as total public debt fell $91.6 billion.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the FOMC will hold seven interest rate votes in 2027 and six in 2028, down from eight. Prime stays at 7.00 percent and December 8 to 9 is unaffected.