Treasury 10-Year Note Stops at 4.834%, Highest Auction Yield Since 2007

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

The Federal Reserve's G.19 release shows consumer credit rose $18.1 billion in July 2026, pushing revolving card balances to a record $1.3572 trillion a week before the September 16 FOMC decision.

Treasury held $967.9 billion at the Fed in the week ended September 2, a four month high, pulling bank reserves to $2.895 trillion, their lowest in 39 weeks.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.

Treasury sells $119 billion of notes and bonds on September 8, 9 and 10 while the Fed observes its pre-meeting blackout. The three-year yields 4.45%.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August and the BLS revised June and July up by a combined 55,000, erasing the reported July decline days before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a September hold if August inflation keeps cooling, citing three-month core inflation of 3.05 percent, and a hike if it does not.

The Fed's September 2 Beige Book found prices increased moderately in eight of twelve Districts, with the pace unchanged in eight and slower in only three.

US federal debt closed August at $40.18 trillion, up $404.02 billion from July 31, the largest single-month rise of fiscal 2026 and the first month-end close above $40T.

Treasury's August 31 six-month bill cleared at 3.885 percent with primary dealers absorbing 40 percent of the sale, their largest share since December 2025.