News and Advice | PrimeRates

Budget, Personal Loans

Primary Dealers See a $2.14 Trillion Treasury Funding Gap in FY2028 and FY2029

An institutional government bond trading desk photographed at dawn, six curved monitors glowing with line charts and price grids, a swivel chair pushed back from the keyboard and a coffee cup beside it, cool blue light coming through a window onto the empty workstation.

Treasury's borrowing committee minutes show the median primary dealer projecting a $2.14 trillion funding shortfall for fiscal 2028 and 2029 at current auction sizes.

Mitch Strohm
November 8, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Payrolls Rise 165,000 in October as December Fed Hike Odds Jump to 77%

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U.S. payrolls rose 165,000 in October and unemployment fell to 4.1 percent, lifting December Fed rate hike odds to roughly 77 percent before the December 9 decision.

Laura Adams
November 7, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Bills Push the Debt’s Average Rate to 3.58%, a Level Last Seen in 2009

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The average rate on U.S. interest-bearing federal debt reached 3.580% on October 31, the highest since April 2009, as Treasury bills topped 4% for the first time in a year.

Shelly Warding
November 6, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Treasury Sets a $125 Billion Refunding and Shifts Its Auction Size Guidance

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Treasury set its November quarterly refunding at $125 billion and dropped the phrase at least from its coupon auction size guidance, pointing any change at February 3.

Mitch Strohm
November 5, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Treasury’s Cash Balance Falls to $930.8 Billion After Topping $1 Trillion

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Treasury's operating cash balance closed at $930.8 billion on November 2, down $121.8 billion from its October 27 peak, as total public debt fell $91.6 billion.

Laura Adams
November 4, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Warsh Sets Seven 2027 Rate Votes and Six in 2028, Down From Eight

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the FOMC will hold seven interest rate votes in 2027 and six in 2028, down from eight. Prime stays at 7.00 percent and December 8 to 9 is unaffected.

Shelly Warding
November 3, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Treasury Revisits Its $628 Billion Borrowing Estimate as Refunding Week Opens

Early morning sunlight rakes across the tall stone columns of the neoclassical United States Treasury Department building in Washington, with bare autumn tree branches in the foreground and a deep blue sky overhead

Treasury updates its $628 billion October through December borrowing estimate Monday at 3 p.m. Eastern, with the quarterly refunding statement due Wednesday morning.

Mitch Strohm
November 2, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Federal Debt Grew $421.8 Billion in October, the Most Since July 2025

The neoclassical stone facade of the U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington lit by low dawn sunlight, with bare autumn tree branches in the foreground and heavy grey clouds overhead.

Federal debt rose $421.8 billion in October 2026 to $40.593 trillion, the largest monthly increase since July 2025. Here is what it means for prime and mortgage rates.

Laura Adams
November 1, 2026

Budget, Credit Cards

Core PCE Rises to 3.1% in September, Under the Fed’s 3.4% Projection

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Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% over the 12 months through September 2026, the BEA reported October 29, one day after the Fed held the prime rate at 7.00% on a 10 to 2 vote.

Shelly Warding
October 31, 2026

Budget, Personal Loans

Overnight Repo Rate Tops the Fed’s Floor as Bank Reserves Drain $69 Billion

The limestone colonnade of a neoclassical central bank building photographed at dawn from the empty stone plaza, with long shadows falling across the paving and a clear pale blue sky overhead.

Bank reserves fell $68.8 billion to $2.894 trillion in the week ended October 28, the lowest since December 2025, as SOFR closed above the Fed's 3.90% floor for a fourth straight session.

Mitch Strohm
October 30, 2026